Heritability of Overconfidence
نویسندگان
چکیده
Empirical evidence suggests that people on average overestimate their own ability in a variety of circumstances. Little is known, however, about the origins of such overconfidence. To shed some light on this issue, we use the classic twin design to estimate the genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in overconfidence. We collect data on overconfidence among 460 twin pairs. Overconfidence is measured as the difference between the perceived and actual rank in cognitive ability. Cognitive ability is measured using a 20-minute test of general intelligence. We find a highly significant joint effect of genes and common environment, but our estimates of the relative contributions of genetic and common environmental variation are less precise. According to our point estimates, genetic differences explain 16–34% of the variation in overconfidence depending on the definition of overconfidence used and common environmental differences explain 5–11%. (JEL: C91, D87, Z13)
منابع مشابه
Investigating the Relationship between Management Overconfidence, Audit Firm Size, actual earnings management and Auditor's Opinion in Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between managers' Overconfidence, audit firm size, actual earnings management and auditor's comment on Tehran Stock Exchange companies, In such a way that the independent variable managers' overconfidence variable, the size of the moderator variable auditor, the actual earnings management as the mediator variable, and the auditor's o...
متن کاملتاثیر بیش اعتمادی مدیران برساختار سرمایه
بیش اعتمادی بعنوان یک مفهوم بین رشته ای، با درجه بندی و احتمال قضاوت در روانشناسی همراه است. مدیران بیش اعتماد را می توان بعنوان مدیران خلاف قاعده تعریف کرد، در مفهوم مالی بیش اعتمادی بعنوان یک برآورد و یا تفسیر از میزان دانش و یا اطلاعات خصوصی تعریف شده است. در این مقاله به بررسی تاثیر بیش اعتمادی مدیران بر ارزش دفتری و ارزش بازار ساختار سرمایه پرداخته شده است. در این راستا از میان شرکت ها...
متن کاملUnder- and Over- Reaction from Relative and Aggregate Overconfidence
This paper offers a continuous time, general equilibrium model where a risky asset is traded among risk-averse overconfident investors. Two kinds of overconfidence are introduced: investors exhibit relative overconfidence if each investor believes her model is better than others’ and aggregate overconfidence if they believe signals have more information content than those in the true model. Rel...
متن کاملThe Role of Environmental Uncertainty, Financial Constraints and Accounting Conservatism in Limiting the Performance Outcomes Due to Manager Overconfidence
Objective: The excessive self-esteem of managers leads to postponing bad news due to weaknesses in performance, and conservatism can be a factor in modifying it. In this paper, the purpose is to examine the role of accounting conservatism in limiting the functional outcomes results from overconfidence managers. Methods: The data of the companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange for the peri...
متن کاملتأثیر عامل رفتاری اطمینان بیش از حد مدیران بر اثربخشی مدیریت ریسک
هدف از مدیریت ریسک شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک و کاهش آن با استفاده از منابع اقتصادی در اختیار مدیر است. در مطالعه حاضر ارتباط بین اطمینان بیش از حد مدیران و اثر بخشی مدیریت ریسک مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا، از سه معیار خطای تخمین سود، مخارج سرمایهگذاری و سرمایهگذاری بیش از حد به عنوان شاخصهای اطمینان بیش از حد مدیران و همچنین از چهار عامل استراتژی، بهرهوری، گزارشگری و انطباق جهت محا...
متن کامل